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Wine Industry Expectations for 2021-22

Posted on April 19, 2021 by Admin

The future for the wine industry can be summed up in two words: Direct-To-Consumer Sales.

The curve ball for the industry in 2020 was the COVID pandemic which had a sizable impact on wine sales. Wineries had to quickly change tactics in response as tasting rooms and restaurants went dormant. In a nutshell, sales shifted dramatically to online and direct-to-consumer purchases.

What to Expect for 2021-22:

Improved demand from consumers as hospitality, cruise lines, travel, concerts, sports and the like reopen, in addition to deferred events such as weddings.

How Wineries Can Make the Most of the Changed Sales Landscape:

Opportunities for marginal growth will be found by investing in ecommerce and digital strategies.

How Vineyards Factor In:

What’s critical is a balanced harvest supply in the West. Supply is the West is largely balanced going into 2021 but with low growth rates, a large harvest will put supply back out of balance. However, as California appears poised for a drought in the summer of 2021, over-supply appears unlikely.

In conclusion, the wine industry will need to continue to adapt in sales channels, strategies, tactics, and messaging to be successful in meeting the post-vaccine demand.

 

 

DIRECT TO CONSUMER CHANNEL MOVEMENT: Channel shifting was the byword for 2020 in grocery, smaller producer and direct-to-consumer channels. With tasting rooms’ closure in March, the consumer adapted and went online to purchase. The shift replaced lost tasting room sales. Online is now the greatest opportunity for producers in 2021.

 

 

 

 

 

 

OFF PREMISE VOLUME AND VALUE CHANGES: 2020 began with declining volume measures and discounting due to an acute oversupply of wine and overall flattening consumer demand. March lockdowns moved consumers to a panic-buying phase for wine, spiking wine sales growth above 60 percent. By the end of the year, total wine sales were about even with the prior year.

 

 

 

 

 

AVERAGE WINERY SALES CHANNELS PRE-COVID AND DURING COVID: Restaurants and tasting room sales made up about 43 percent of the average winery’s sales in April 2020, when the government issued shelter-in-place orders, closing both channels. Resilient producers immediately evolved to phone sales, ecommerce, Zoom tastings and curbside pickup, among other tactics. By November, the magnitude of the shift was apparent, with online sales showing the greatest total change.

 

 

 

 

ECOMMERCE TRENDS IN ALCOHOL: With consumers sheltering and working from home, online sales became important for all alcohol producers. Growth in delivery company accounts for companies like Drizly and Instacart exploded. We believe there is a permanent consumer shift to more online purchases of wine, which will expand with the coming of age of millennial consumers.

 

Information sourced from Silicon Valley Bank State of the Wine Industry Report for 2021: https://www.svb.com/trends-insights/reports/wine-report

 

Real Estate: The “Bright Spot” in California’s Economy

Posted on December 17, 2020 by Admin

The beginning of 2020 saw the California real estate market humming along at a good clip. Then came March and the COVID-19 lock-down and everything came to a screeching halt. Sellers pulled homes off the market, afraid of contagion, and buyers stopped looking, mostly for the same reason, as the entire US economy literally shut down for about the next three and a half months.

But in June of 2020 things began to change. Real estate was designated “essential” and Home buyers, driven by a refocused need of home as a refuge, began to come out again. This resurgence was in part fueled by a large segment of workers in our economy who needed to work remotely from home, many with children who were also schooling remotely from home. Home has always been held in high esteem, but the pandemic raised the idea of Home as a Refuge to new levels of demand not seen before.

In July, the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) reported that home sales across the state rose by a whopping 42% from May to June 2020. That’s partly due to the state’s gradual reopening which happened at that time as well as from pent up buyer demand.

What was a surprise and has since become a trend is the exodus of buyers leaving high priced, high-density urban areas, like San Francisco, for suburban areas that offered more space, privacy, and affordability. In fact, as we speak, San Francisco continues to experience a softening of prices in its housing market. And local news channels report that a significant number of San Francisco rentals are sitting vacant.

As an example, this trend was readily seen last summer in areas like the Russian River of the North Bay. Out of the way comparatively “cheap” river shacks along Rio Nido, Guerneville, Monte Rio and Cazadero were gobbled up like so many potato chips left unattended at a picnic with all-cash offers and little to no contingencies. Other rural to suburban areas, like Murphys, is experiencing similar value shifts in its housing market. With many now having the ability to work remotely, areas once inaccessible as a primary residence are now doable.

Home Buying Institute (HBI) predicts the following for the California real estate market in 2021:

  1. Home price appreciation will tick upwards as buyers and sellers realize that real estate deals can still be conducted despite the pandemic and because of upcoming vaccinations which will help to create confidence and normalize life.
  2. “Urban Flight” will continue to be a thing, with the desire for space and privacy at an all time premium which will continue to drive up prices in small towns, suburbs and more rural areas.
  3. Home inventory is expected to grow as more sellers get comfortable with putting their home on the market again and as we see more foreclosures come to market.
  4. Mortgage rates are expected to stay at an all time low at around 3-3.5% well through 2021.
  5. An increase in home sales is expected as the urban to suburban migration continues, which should keep California’s real estate market very active all through 2021.

In conclusion, the housing market continues to surprise economists and analysts. During this unprecedented pandemic it has been referred to, repeatedly, as the one “bright spot” in the nation’s economy. This surprisingly strong performance is expected to continue through the end of 2020 and well into 2021. And as we collectively face the challenges ahead, including what is now commonly termed a “dark winter” it’s nice to have a bright spot on the horizon. Finally, it’s worth remembering that the shortest, darkest day of the year is December 21st, but after that, days will get longer and brighter. Think of the pandemic as the shortest, darkest day of the year and look forward to things getting better and brighter.

Wishing you and your loved ones hope and brightness in the days to come. May 2021 be the year more of our hopes and dreams come true.

—Mark Stevens

December 18, 2020

 

 

Source citations:

Norada, https://www.noradarealestate.com/

HBI (Home Buying Institute), http://www.homebuyinginstitute.com/news/california-housing-predictions-for-2021/

Rare Home and Rental Find Within Sebastopol City Limits

Posted on September 15, 2020 by Admin

Two for One Makes this Offering Very Special!

Welcome to 7934 Juanita Court located within the city limits of Sebastopol with easy access to all Russian River recreation and wineries. The main house is a single story Rancher with two bedrooms and a half bath. The second dwelling is located at the back of the property and is a contemporary, spacious studio with a full bath and kitchen. This offering is a rare and fantastic home and rental opportunity within the city limits of Sebastopol.

Loads of charm potential and investment value in this 2 bedroom/1.5 Bathroom Rancher in the heart of Sebastopol,complete with a gorgeous detached Studio with a full bathroom and kitchen located at the back of the property. Tons of rental potential. Main house would be easy to transform into a charming, adorable home. Floor plan features two bedrooms on either end of the house for maximum occupant privacy. Features original hardwood floors, 2-car garage, large backyard with outdoor shower and mature trees. Within walking distance to parks, restaurants, art galleries, The Barlow, and more. A little TLC and a few finishing touches will make this home sparkle!

Live the Good Life in Healdsburg

Posted on July 21, 2020 by Admin

Healdsburg is a small, tourist community in Sonoma County in the heart of California’s beautiful Wine Country. Healdsburg truly takes the pleasures of life seriously with natural beauty, world-class wineries, farm-fresh food, and friendly residents. Considering moving to Healdsburg? Get ready to experience life in what is frequently ranked as one of the Coolest Small Towns in America and one of the Best Small Towns in the U.S.

The Sonoma region is best described as a haven for wine lovers and a grown-up’s theme park with restaurants that are less pretentious than in nearby Napa Valley yet just as chic and three of America’s top wineries all within reach.

The population of Healdsburg, CA is 11,721 and it’s one of 30 communities in Sonoma County, CA ranging from small coastal villages and quaint towns to major cities like Santa Rosa. The city has a median age of 44.6 years old, far above the national average 36.8 years, and this reflects the community’s high share of professionals, retirees, and highly educated residents. About 28% of people in the city have at least a bachelor’s degree compared with just 19% of the United States as a whole. Healdsburg is somewhat diverse with an ethnic composition of 62.6% white alone, 33.7% Hispanic of any race, 2.2% two or more races, and 1.1% Asian.

Looking for a safe place to live and raise a family? It’s hard to beat Healdsburg’s low crime rate. This safe city has far lower reported crime rates for theft, property crime, burglary, and violent crime than the California and national averages.

If you’re considering moving to Healdsburg, CA, you probably already know that life in central Sonoma Valley isn’t cheap. Healdsburg’s cost of living index is about 170 compared to the national average of 100 and the California average of 138. Much of this is attributed to high housing costs in Healdsburg, CA.

The average home price in Healdsburg is $647,600, nearly three times the national average, and the homeownership rate is slightly below average. Still, you can find homes that run the gamut with condos and townhomes priced below $250,000 to beautiful estates topping $3 million. You can start searching for Healdsburg, CA homes for sale to get an idea of what you can get with your budget.

So, how much does it cost to live in Healdsburg as a renter? Average rents in Healdsburg are around $1,466, according to RentCafe. That makes the city more affordable than nearby Santa Rosa where rent tops $2,200.

As a small city with just 4.5 square miles of area, Healdsburg doesn’t have many neighborhoods. That doesn’t mean you don’t have plenty of choice in where to live in Healdsburg, though. Every area of the city is highly rated for safety, great schools, and outdoor recreation.

One of the best places to live in Healdsburg if you like to be near the action and vineyards is the City Center. This is where most of Healdsburg’s businesses are located along with a handful of homes and apartment complexes. It’s here that you’ll have the best luck finding an apartment for rent in Healdsburg.

The Powell Ave/University St neighborhood is home to the Healdsburg Golf Club at Tayman Park and many residential developments with single-family homes. There are plenty of parks to explore in the neighborhood and one of the city’s famous vineyards.

The Lytton/Simi area is the largest area of Healdsburg and it’s home to the most open space, beautiful views, and spacious homes. If you want room to explore and more privacy from your neighbors, you’ll probably want to be in this area farther from the city center.

Take a look at our featured listing for Healdsburg: Turn-Key Craftsman Charmer


Article courtesy of Jesse Lovan. Access full article here: https://mentorsmoving.com/blog/moving-to-healdsburg-ca/

 

Art Trails of Sonoma County – Like a Treasure Hunt (but better!)

Posted on October 10, 2018 by Admin

Sonoma County Art Trails goes onto my schedule, every year, twice a year, without fail.  And this isn’t just because I live next door to the talented Carole Watanabe.  Well, that could be part of it… but more so, Art Trails creates a great excuse to get out & about to new places in Sonoma County.  As we are driving down numerous hidden back-country roads toward our next stop on the Art Trails, we have the perfect excuse to stop off at a nearby winery or restaurant for refreshment and sustenance.  After all, looking at so much great art is sort of like an endurance race, requiring (delicious) food & hydration……

I am proud to call Sebastopol my home of many years. I love its progressive attitude and upscale down-to-earth vibe, among other things. So its no surprise that my town is home to the largest Art Center in California, north of San Francisco—Sebastopol Center for the Arts—responsible for creating this fun adventure known as Sonoma County Art Trails.

If you’re new to Art Trails, here’s a great way to take advantage of this event: Go to the Sebastopol Center for the Arts at 282 S High St, Sebastopol, CA 95472. They are open Tuesdays through Sundays from 10-4 pm and have extended hours over the weekend from 10-5 pm (10/13 & 14 and 10/20 & 21). Once there, you can pick up the Art Trails Catalog and Map, plus view the participants’ paintings throughout the gallery (each artist has one piece hanging in the gallery).  Or simply CLICK HERE for a digital version & print at your leisure.

Meanwhile, enjoy rambling around all the open art studios throughout Sonoma County….and have a great, art-filled weekend!

— Mark

 

Schedule for Sonoma County Art Trails

Sundays and Saturdays, October 13, 2018 – October 21, 2018

Upcoming Dates:

~ Saturday, October 13, 2018 – 10:00am to 05:00pm
~ Sunday, October 14, 2018 – 10:00am to 05:00pm
~ Saturday, October 20, 2018 – 10:00am to 05:00pm

Cost: Free

Location:

Various Sonoma County Art Studios
Sebastopol Center for the Arts
282 S. High Street
SebastopolCalifornia 95472

For More Information:

Contact: Sebastopol Center for the Arts
Local: 707-829-4797
Email: info@sebarts.org

 

*Featured image courtesy of sonomacountyarttrails.org

News This Week: Wine Country Charm and Environmental Leadership

Posted on September 14, 2018 by Admin

EACH WEEK WE COLLECT TOP LOCAL NEWS AND RECENT REAL ESTATE STORIES HOT OFF THE PRESS FOR YOUR WEEKEND CLICKING PLEASURE.

Short & Beautiful Ride to Small Vines Wines
Try this 7.5 mile bike ride around Sebastopol to taste some great wine, and take in some of West Sonoma County’s charm. READ MORE

Open Space Protected Forever!
The Sonoma County Board of Supervisors have approved an agreement to protect nearly 1000 acres of land adjacent to Tolay Lake Regional Park. READ MORE

Kitchen Design Details
Small details can make all the difference in your kitchen design. This guide will help you turn your kitchen into a stunning success. READ MORE

Carbon Free California
Governor Jerry Brown has signed a new law committing California to a carbon-free power grid by the year 2045. The law is one of part of California’s ambitious plan to fight climate change. READ MORE